According to a recent report by Moody’s Analytics, one of the most esteemed economic research organizations in the country, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party’s proposed economic agenda will lead to a significantly more robust and stronger economy than one under a second term of President Donald Trump.

The report envisions three separate political outcomes based on the 2020 election and makes predictions and projections based on each. Out of the three possible situations, the report makes it clear that “The economic outlook is strongest under the scenario in which Biden and the Democrats sweep Congress and fully adopt their economic agenda.” In that situation, Moody’s projects the country to add 18.6 million jobs during Biden’s first term and the economy to return to full employment by the second half of 2022, after recovering from Trump’s COVID-19 response. Moody’s also expects average household incomes to increase by nearly $5,000, homeownership rates and prices to go up, and the stock market to rise.

Under complete Republican control of the government, the economic outlook is the weakest out of the three envisioned scenarios. Only 11.2 million new jobs are expected to be added, a full 7.6 million fewer than under Democrats, and the country is not expected to return to full employment until 2024, with the second term average unemployment rate hovering at 6.4%. And Republican GDP growth would come in at about 3.1%, a full percentage point lower than under Democrats.

Digging in past the numbers, the Moody’s report also compares and contrasts the two slates of policies offered by both presidential campaigns. Moody’s states “low and middle-income households are the primary beneficiaries of Biden’s economic proposals.” It also notes that, “their tax bill will remain roughly the same as it is today, but they are significant beneficiaries of increased government spending on education, healthcare, housing, a plethora of other social programs, and a larger economy.”

Biden’s plans are paid for with higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy over the next decade, and according to Moody’s, they will inject $7.3 trillion into the American economy over the next decade by investing in infrastructure, education, and the social safety net including Social Security, housing, and health care. The stated goal of this spending is “to generate more jobs and return the economy to full employment as quickly as possible.”

In addition to greater growth from 2020-2024, the longer-term effects of Biden’s policies are also stronger because, according to Moody’s, “His plan to increase spending on the nation’s infrastructure also boosts business competitiveness and productivity. His paid family leave and elder care plans would increase labor force participation, which is approximately a percentage point higher a decade from now as a result, while increased spending on higher education and early childhood education would raise the educational attainment of workers.”

Moody’s draws the conclusion that “Biden’s economic proposals would result in a stronger U.S. economy than Trump’s.” They credit this decision to “Biden’s substantially more expansive fiscal policies” that would cause the economy “to return to full employment more quickly coming out of the pandemic than under Trump”.

In November, the American people face a choice between two distinct economic visions. According to Moody’s Analytics, from a nonpartisan, business-minded perspective, a Biden presidency will be better for the economy than a second Trump term.

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